Category: Economy

The leaders of the House and Senate have come up with a new budget deal, and many people aren’t happy. […]

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in December, above the consensus expected +0.2%.  The CPI is up 3.4% from […]

The trade deficit in goods and services came in at $63.2 billion in November, smaller than the consensus expected $64.9 […]

Last Friday’s jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls up 216,000 in December, beating the consensus expected 175,000. Many are arguing that […]

The ISM Non-Manufacturing index declined to 50.6 in December, lagging the consensus expected 52.5 (Levels above 50 signal expansion; levels […]

Nonfarm payrolls increased 216,000 in December, beating the consensus expected 175,000.  Payroll gains for October and November were revised down […]

View from the Observation Deck One of the most common questions we field on an ongoing basis is the following: […]

The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 47.4 in December, beating the consensus expected 47.1. (Levels higher than 50 signal expansion; […]

Just because we still think the economy is headed for a recession, doesn’t mean we think the housing market is […]

Very early this year our economics team got a pleasant surprise: Consensus Economics, which collects forecasts from roughly 200 economists […]

New single-family home sales declined 12.2% in November to a 0.590 million annual rate, well below the consensus expected 0.690 […]

New orders for durable goods rose 5.4% in November (+5.7% including revisions to prior months), easily beating the consensus expected […]

Real GDP growth in Q3 was revised lower to a 4.9% annual rate, coming in below the consensus expected 5.2%. […]

Existing home sales increased 0.8% in November to a 3.820 million annual rate, narrowly beating the consensus expected 3.780 million. […]

Housing starts increased 14.8% in November to a 1.560 million annual rate, easily beating the consensus expected 1.360 million.  Starts […]