S&P 500 Stock Prices Relative To Their All-Time Highs

September 3, 2023
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View from the Observation Deck

Driven by enthusiasm over recent developments in Artificial Intelligence, the S&P 500 Index (“Index”) posted a total return of 15.19% year-to-date (YTD) through 8/24/23. Seven of the eleven sectors that comprise the Index are positive YTD over the same period. That said, the Index closed at 4,376.31 on 8/24/23, 8.76% below its all-time high of 4,796.56 set on 1/3/22. This piqued our curiosity. Where do each of the eleven sectors stand with regards to their respective all-time highs?

• As the chart reveals, all eleven sectors that comprise the Index also remain below their all-time highs as of 8/24/23.

The Industrials sector was closest to its all-time high (-4.82%), while Real Estate was furthest (-29.83%). Communication Services and Information Technology, the two top performing sectors in the Index on a YTD basis, stood -23.57% and -7.35%, respectively, below their all-time highs.

• As of 8/24/23, 275 stocks in the S&P 500 Index (currently 503) had positive returns on a price-only basis in 2023, according to data from Bloomberg. Those 275 stocks only account for 54.7% of the 503 holdings. For comparison, just 145 stocks in the Index finished the 2022 with positive price returns.

• A Bloomberg survey of 23 equity strategists found that their average year-end price target for the S&P 500 Index was 4,318 as of 8/21/23, according to its own release. The highest estimate was 4,900, while the lowest was 3,400.

Takeaway

The S&P 500 Index has experienced a remarkable year thus far in 2023. That said, neither the broader Index nor any of its eleven sectors have been able to recapture their all-time highs. Even the Communication Services and Information Technology sectors, which posted total returns of 39.31% and 37.70%, respectively (YTD through 8/24/23), are substantially below their highs. The most recent Bloomberg survey of equity strategists revealed an average year-end price target for the S&P 500 Index of 4,318 (23 strategists surveyed). Notably, this same survey stood at an average of 4,017 just a few short months ago (5/18/23, 23 strategists surveyed). We’ll leave it to the pundits to debate the day-to-day direction of equity markets. From our perspective, investors with a long-term view should take comfort in the fact that given enough time, equity markets have never failed to produce new highs.