View from the Observation Deck
Today’s blog post is intended to provide insight into bond prices relative to changes in interest rates. The dates in the chart are from prior posts we’ve written on this topic.
Each of the eight bond indices we track remain below par value.
Over the past 18 months, the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) announced a total of 11 increases to the federal funds target rate (upper bound), sending it soaring from 0.25% where it stood on 3/16/22, to 5.50% as of 7/26/23. As many investors are aware, bond prices and yields typically move in opposite directions. Therefore, an increase or decrease in bond prices could be an indication that yields have fallen or risen, respectively, over the period. While not captured by the time frame in today’s chart, seven of the eight bond indices referenced stood above their par values as of 12/15/21 (Click here to see our post that covers that time frame). For comparison, all eight were below their par values as of 7/25/23.
The trailing 12-month rate of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 3.0% as of 6/30/23, down significantly from its most recent peak of 9.1% on 6/30/22.
While the decrease in the CPI is a welcome relief to bond investors and consumers alike, inflation still hovers above the Fed’s stated goal of 2.0% as well as its 30-year average of 2.5% (through 6/30/23). In our view, the additional 0.25% increase in the federal funds rate on 7/26/23 is evidence that the Fed is committed to their inflation goal. Investors will want to take note; if the Fed continues to tighten, we expect bond valuations may suffer.
Takeaway
With inflation’s recent retreat, all eight of the indices we track in today’s chart currently reflect positive real yields (yield minus inflation). While this is welcome news, we think bond investors would be wise to keep a close watch on the Fed’s next moves. As the chart reveals, the fixed income indices we track have been priced below their par values for some time. Should monetary policy tighten further, we would expect to see further price pressures across this group.
