By Ray Dalio
In this report, the drivers of productivity are shown and are used to create an economic health index. That index shows how 20 major countries are doing as measured by 19 economic health gauges made up of 81 indicators, and it shows what these gauges portend for real GDP growth in each of these countries over the next 10 years. As you will see, past predictions based on this process have been highly reliable. For this reason, this economic health index provides both a reliable prognosis for each of these country’s growth rates over the next 10 years and reliable formula for success. By looking at these cause-effect relationships in much the same way as a doctor looks at one’s genetics, blood tests, and regimes for exercise and diet, we can both see each country’s health prospects and know what changes each can make so that these countries can become economically healthier. We are making this research available in the hope that it will facilitate the very important discussions about structural reforms that are now going on and will help both the public and policymakers to look past their ideological differences to see the economy as a machine in much the same way as doctors see bodies as a machine and look at the relationships of cholesterol and heart attacks analytically rather than ideologically.
